Market Analysis

USD/JPY is back near the 160 intervention zone as Gulf tensions support the U.S. dollar and Japan’s low-yield currency remains under pressure. However, growing expectations for a June BOJ rate hike and fresh warnings from Tokyo are making further upside more fragile.

GBP/USD is holding near recent levels as UK manufacturing price pressure keeps the Bank of England cautious, but weak business activity, softer inflation expectations, and a steady U.S. dollar are limiting the pound’s upside.

USD/CHF remains supported as the dollar steadies ahead of U.S. jobs data and central-bank signals, while the Swiss National Bank’s willingness to resist excessive franc strength limits CHF upside. However, the franc’s safe-haven role keeps the pair from building a clean rally.

GBP/JPY remains supported by the wide UK-Japan rate gap and lingering Bank of England inflation concerns, but renewed UK political pressure and rising yen intervention risk are making high-level rallies harder to chase.

NZD/USD remains supported after the RBNZ kept the OCR at 2.25% and warned that Middle East-driven inflation will stay above target this year, but weaker New Zealand growth forecasts and renewed U.S. dollar strength are limiting the kiwi’s upside.

EUR/JPY remains supported as ECB rate-hike expectations keep the euro firm and the yen stays weak near intervention-sensitive levels. However, rising BOJ hike expectations and Japan’s exposure to energy prices are making the upside less straightforward.

EUR/USD remains supported by ECB rate-hike expectations, but the dollar has found a firmer footing as hopes for a quick Middle East peace deal fade. The pair is likely to stay rangebound unless either the Fed or ECB gives a clearer policy signal.

USD/CAD remains caught between weaker oil support for the Canadian dollar and softer U.S. dollar demand after signs of a possible Hormuz reopening deal. Canada’s headline inflation rose in April, but softer core inflation keeps Bank of Canada tightening expectations contained.

AUD/USD is losing momentum after Australia’s April labour report showed higher unemployment and a fall in employment, reducing expectations for near-term RBA tightening. However, the pair may avoid a deeper slide if the U.S. dollar loses momentum and China-related sentiment remains stable.