Market Analysis

Silver is staying relatively supported because lower rate expectations and a still-tight physical market are helping to offset part of the pressure from a firmer U.S. dollar and lingering ceasefire uncertainty in the Middle East.

NZD/USD has found support after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held rates at 2.25% and warned it could raise the OCR decisively if inflation pressures broaden. Even so, a fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire and a still-firm dollar are limiting the kiwi’s upside.

Natural gas and LNG markets have eased after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire reopened the Strait of Hormuz, but the relief still looks incomplete. Shipping caution, damaged infrastructure, and earlier supply losses continue to limit the case for a full normalization in global gas pricing.

USD/CAD is staying elevated because stronger oil prices are no longer enough to offset safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar. A cautious Bank of Canada, weak Canadian services activity, and lingering geopolitical risk are keeping upside pressure on the pair.

Brent crude has moved back above $100 after hopes for a quick easing in the Iran conflict faded, pushing traders to reprice supply disruption, shipping risk, and inflation pressure back into the market.

The S&P 500 rebounded sharply into quarter-end as investors reacted to signs of a possible off-ramp in the Iran conflict, but the bigger macro pressure has not disappeared. Elevated oil risk, sticky inflation concerns, and a still-cautious Federal Reserve continue to limit the case for a clean equity recovery.

AUD/USD remains under pressure near multi-month lows as safe-haven demand keeps the U.S. dollar firm, while the RBA’s 4.10% cash rate and a rebound in China’s March PMI provide only limited support for the Australian dollar.

GBP/USD is facing renewed pressure as safe-haven demand supports the U.S. dollar, while higher energy prices complicate the Bank of England’s policy path and weaken the near-term UK growth backdrop.

The Nasdaq has slipped into correction territory as Middle East tensions push oil higher, lift inflation worries, and pressure rate-sensitive technology stocks, even as some strategists still see support from earnings and improved valuations.